Metal prices slow again in June as Trilemma bites

Image: Vasu Jamwal

Here’s a quick update to my 6 June post “Are higher commodity prices a cure for high commodity prices, this time?”

And since then there’s been quite a large update to historical numbers. This happens because not all data points are in at the time of publication and/or reallocated.

The new data reveals that May experienced an even larger fall in prices than previously released by the RBA.

Regardless. here are the charts I’ve updated for the June print.

The first chart is predominantly driven by spot iron ore and coal (coking and thermal) prices measured in SDRs to remove currency bias.

As expected due to China shutdown and eroding margins, bulk prices decelerated in June.

But it was base metal (predominantly aluminium and copper) prices that printed a third month of deceleration.

The trilemma of high commodity prices, cost of capital recalibration and liquidity withdrawal are having an impact on access and margins and in turn, global demand as evidenced by falling PMIs.

And while the answer to whether higher prices are a cure for already high prices is still playing out, the answer is looking increasingly affirmative.

Mike

Next Level Corporate Advisory is a leading M&A and capital markets advisor with a 20 year track record of delivering the highest quality of independent financial advice as well as strategic transactions to help companies of all sizes level-up, in and out of Australia.

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Image: Patrycja Grobelny