……how chips, compute, energy, and strategic minerals are reshaping corporate development and investment markets

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TL; DR

Over the next few years, growth will look very different from what most people expect.

It won’t be household spending or easy credit driving GDP, and it won’t be the quiet expansion of services or tech adoption. The real engine will be geopolitical competition playing out in factories, mines, mineral processing facilities, and data centres.

At the same time, we’re entering a new monetary and strategic regime that’s very different to life before interest rate lift off in March 2022. Persistent broad money expansion is debasing currencies over time, while the freezing of Russian sovereign assets has reminded nations that financial reserves are not politically neutral. As a result, precious metals and scarce real assets are increasingly viewed as more reliable stores of value than fiat currency alone.

In portfolio terms, this points to a shift where gold and hard assets move from being marginal hedges to becoming core strategic holdings alongside geopolitical growth assets. Not as a replacement for the dollar, but as a necessary counterweight.

This has significant implications for corporate development and personal investing.

Let’s dig in.

Why geopolitics is the new growth engine

The Trump Administration’s policies, including tariffs, trade restrictions, and efforts to secure critical supply chains, are not growth engines themselves. But they’re acting as a provocateur, nudging China and Europe into a race to invest in the things that matter most. Things like chips, compute power, energy systems, and strategic minerals.

Imagine a global game of industrial chess where every move forces the other players to commit capital, expand capacity, and innovate faster than they might have otherwise. Every new investment is a move on the board, and each factory or mine is a fortress defending national advantage.

Still, these are not ordinary industries. Chips and compute power fuel AI, high-speed networks, and everything from smartphones to military systems. Energy systems and strategic minerals power the machines of war, including planes, ships, satellites, and the electronics that run them.

The demand won’t come directly from household consumers. It will be pushed by strategy and necessity. When nations decide that self-sufficiency in semiconductors or lithium is a matter of national security, they invest like it’s wartime. And that fiscal response shows up in factories, mines, labs, jobs, and later in inflation prints.

Each new chip plant hums like a modern fortress, defending technological advantage. Each new rare earth processing facility is like a hidden armoury, quietly supplying the tools for both civilian innovation and national defence.

Australia’s strategic play

And for Australia, we will see significant investment from both the U.S. and the Australian government, such as the recently announced Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve. This initiative will see the Federal Government commit $1.2 billion within an “Australia Incorporated” model. Under this approach, and with demand-side support from the U.S., the government will act as a funder, offtake aggregator, and sponsor of rare earth and critical mineral projects.

Many of these projects would have remained unviable or uninvestable without this level of sovereign support and supply security, creating a strategic pipeline of projects critical to both economic growth and national security.

No doubt, this should keep us free from super-sized tariffs.

Financial consequences and market implications

This kind of growth has consequences. Scarce resources, supply-chain bottlenecks, and capital-intensive projects are naturally inflationary. Typically, prices rise across technology, energy, and industrial sectors. To cool the economy, central banks increase official rates, bond yields rise, borrowing becomes more expensive.

At the same time, governments still need to fund their deficits and strategic projects, creating tension between the push for investment that increases the cost of capital, and monetisation by treasury and central banks that expands broad money, and decreases the cost of capital.

Tariffs are tactical plays to create leverage, before the now familiar backflip. Still, the theory is that sovereigns that don’t invest enough in defence, NATO allies for example, feel the pressure. They must spend on war machine fleets, AI labs, or energy projects or face economic consequences. Every tariff is a signal in the global game of investment and security. It’s a blunt instrument calling card signalling a negotiation with Donald Trump is about to happen.

For companies and investors, the implications are profound. The dollar may continue to debase, reflecting a shift toward real assets and industrial investment rather than consumer-led growth. In portfolio terms, this reinforces a shift toward gold and hard assets as strategic counterweights rather than marginal hedges.

The cost of capital will likely track higher, making strategic choices essential. In turn, that would mean mergers, acquisitions, and capital raising will favour firms in strategic sectors, including semiconductors, AI compute, energy infrastructure, and critical minerals. Businesses in more cyclical or non-strategic areas may struggle to access cheap financing. Growth is no longer just about selling products. It’s about positioning yourself at the intersection of policy, security, and investment. Each decision counts, and timing is everything.

The story of growth over the next few years is human, geopolitical, and industrial. It’s the story of countries jostling for advantage. It’s the story of factories and mines humming because someone decided strategic dominance is worth the cost. It’s the story of investors learning to navigate a world where economic rivalry and monetary debasement both drive opportunity at the same time. Tariffs, supply-chain moves, inflation, and interest rates are not disconnected issues. They are all part of a single, connected narrative.

The global economy is being shaped by competition, necessity, and ambition.

Each investment in chips, each battery plant, and each rare earth and strategic minerals mine, processing and manufacturing facility is a move in this game. Each of them is a piece in the new growth engine.

For corporate development and personal investing, the implications are clear

First, strategic sectors will lead value creation. Companies exposed to chips, AI compute, energy infrastructure, and critical or strategic minerals are at the centre of investment flows. These are the areas where growth and capital allocation are being driven by geopolitical competition rather than market demand. Positioning in these sectors is likely to yield the strongest returns and strategic advantage. This is likely to be at least a decade-long thematic.

Why do I say that? Well, as demand pushes up hard asset prices and in turn market prices, indexed investors will increasingly find themselves underweight these areas. That means another spurt of investment is likely, driven by rotation into chips and a reallocation of capital that could create a multi-year tailwind.

If that happens, it will support positive price action in commodities and equities and reinforce the strategic importance of these sectors for years to come. What that means is that each investment made now is not just a bet on the present, it’s a move to capture the momentum of a long-term global trend.

Second, timing and readiness matter more than ever. Inflation, higher interest rates, and policy uncertainty make access to capital more expensive and selective. Businesses must demonstrate resilience, scalability, and strategic alignment to attract investors or acquirers. Being ready with a clear investment story and operational blueprint is now critical. Every delay in preparing your business could mean missing the next wave of strategic investment.

At the personal investment level, higher bond yields may persist for longer. This suggests that short-term bills and notes could offer attractive yields with limited duration risk, while long-term bonds may remain risky due to potential capital loss if rates stay elevated or rise further.

Third, geopolitical context shapes deal strategy. Mergers, capital raising, and partnerships cannot be considered in isolation from global strategic dynamics. Tariffs, supply-chain moves, and national security priorities will influence valuations, investor appetite, and potential regulatory scrutiny. Understanding how competition and government policy intersect with your sector is essential for both timing and execution of corporate development moves. Strategic alignment is no longer optional; it is fundamental to capturing value in a market where policy and investment are inseparable.

Fourth, a gradual weakening of the reserve currency, i.e., the U.S. dollar creates more liquidity and makes commodities more affordable outside the U.S. In turn, that supercharges economic growth and stimulates investment.

Where to now?

Growth over the next few years will be driven by strategic investment, competition, and necessity—fuelled by the race for chips, compute, and energy dominance between the U.S. and China.

At the same time, precious metals and scarce real assets will be increasingly viewed as more reliable stores of value than fiat currency alone over the cycle. They now play a much larger role in personal and corporate investment portfolios, and along with bitcoin, increasingly function as what I describe as anti-debasement assets for those who refuse to be diluted.

Companies and investors that understand this dynamic and position themselves in the right sectors, with the right timing and alignment to the geopolitical context, will be the ones that capture both opportunity and value in a world where economic rivalry is the new growth engine.

Factories, mines, and labs are no longer just places of production. They are the battlegrounds of influence, innovation, and long-term economic power. Sovereigns have now joined the hustle culture.

See you in the market.

Mike

The next growth engine.......Geopolitics, Strategy, and Investment