TLDR: July 2025 Metals Roundup

The pop finally came. After eight months of near-zero or negative growth, Australia’s bulk commodities index (mainly iron ore and coal) jumped ~4% month-on-month in July, indicating prices increased at the fastest rate in 8 months.

Cautious bulk bulls appeared to defy a backdrop of trade tensions, soft China data, and cautious sentiment. And base metals? Well, prices still grew but at the slowest pace in three months.

So, what’s changed across the bulk minerals and bases metals complex?

Trump’s tariff blitz missed raw commodities and instead hit finished metals (steel, aluminium, copper semis). But raw materials like iron ore and coal were spared—keeping Australian exports flowing.
China restocking signals stirred markets. This was despite weak property and industrial data. Low port inventories and policy whispers prompted Chinese buyers to restock iron ore and thermal coal, providing the first real upward momentum in months. Maybe short-lived.
The copper rally eased off and although base metal prices still increased, they did so at a slower pace for the third straight month. The front-loading effect of U.S. tariffs faded, and China’s real demand did not catch up to the stimulus talk. Copper bulls are now waiting on Beijing, not Washington—but the direction of the USD is as much a driver of price as is China.
Speculators took profits and funds began to trim commodity longs after a strong run earlier in 2025. As price moves turned more technical than fundamental, metals cooled—except where supply discipline and trade policy provided a firm floor.

Australian miners are starting to feel some tailwinds again, but it’s tentative and the bulls are cautious. Iron ore and coal rallied on a mix of trade-policy carveouts, Chinese restocking and tight supply; whereas copper’s deceleration reminds us that stimulus headlines don’t always mean real-world demand.

For now, the export pulse has stabilised—but real strength still hinges on China’s next steps, the strength of the USD and the favourable way Australia is being treated by the White House in terms of the 10% tariff reset.

The future is starting to look brighter for our industrial commodities. Uranium is already part of the conversation, and 82% cratered lithium is trying to join in. Trying, but so far failing.

Finally, anti-debasement gold is again retesting the US$3,435/oz resistance level for the fifth time since April. US$3.500/oz soon—or will the profit takers win?

Overall head and shoulders still in play

The overall commodities price index (includes hard and soft commodities) is still caught in a bearish head and shoulders pattern. It feels like there’s still more weakness to come before we can confirm a new cycle—and it’s my belief that it will only come from a combination of direct China stimulus and a weaker USD.

Your Charts for July 2025

🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals

While in Aussie dollar terms prices increased, this was due to a cyclically weaker USD against the Aussie. In SDR terms, price growth was still positive but slowed over the past three months. Copper prices also continued to grow in July but at a slower pace—a clear sign that the tariff front-loading trade is largely exhausted.

With raw copper largely spared from U.S. import tariffs, the market has shifted its focus back to fundamentals. For Australia, that means watching China. While infrastructure talk continues, real-world copper demand remains patchy. Smelters are taking a cautious approach, restocking only modestly, and China's import appetite hasn’t picked up pace. See previous section.

The next leg of copper price strength will require a stronger demand impulse from Beijing—not Washington, and a weaker USD.

🧱👷‍♀️🌉 Bulk minerals

Despite an otherwise sluggish first half of 2025 for the iron ore, coal and LNG complex, July showed a surprising ~4% month‑on‑month uptick in the index.

The shift stemmed from a confluence of factors. U.S. tariff tightening remained focused on finished steel, aluminium and copper derivatives—not raw iron ore or thermal coal—leaving key Australian exports unaffected (barring geopolitical deck chair rearranging) or belligerent comments from Australian PMs (or ex-PMs).

At the same time, easing talk of Chinese stimulus combined with low port-stock levels and supply moderation from Australia and Brazil, created a restocking dynamic. Add speculative market positioning amid broader tariff‑driven uncertainty, and price momentum finally returned after months of sideways trading. But one month does not make a trend.

Thus, the bulls remain cautious (and most likely hedged and stopped).

⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of July, it had continued its collapse, this time to US$8,080/t more than 82% down from its July 2023 peak. This is despite everyone still in the game talking it up.

Uranium is firmly back in the narrative—with month end spot trading at US$71/lb—driven by data centres and increasing capex spends from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. But LNG and coal are quicker, and more present sources of energy.

I continue to expect fossil fuels to make a structural comeback given global demand for energy driven by data centre formation. And what that means is that we will need every calorific unit available, which I’m sure will be repugnant to die hard green transitioners—but reality, nonetheless.

Summary implications from the July print

As I mentioned last month and in the months before, we’re still seeing cyclical dollar weakness within a secular or long-term dollar strength thesis. In the event Trump gets his way with interest rate cuts, the dollar should weaken, providing respite to sovereigns outside the U.S. That’s because a gentler dollar creates liquidity in those countries and creates abundance in the force, aka the Eurodollar market—and that fires up demand for nation building projects and fiscal largesse.

Implications for corporate development: If we do have a real interest rate cutting cycle in Australia this year, greenfield projects delivering into the drivers outlined above might start to emerge. However, as a result of the present macro and opaque geopolitics, there’s way more M&A to come because it’s still the cheaper option.
Implications for investment: Iron ore and coal prices may be on the comeback trail. We’re waiting for confirmation with much resting on U.S. trade policy and China demand/stimulus. Uranium looks strong. Coal and fossil fuels are still required and are not going away any time soon (or for many decades). Aussie copper has been spared U.S. tariffs, but it remains a USD story (despite supply shortfalls) due to “affordability”.
There is some downward pressure from a precious metal perspective as a result of interest rates remaining on pause. But since GDP growth can’t keep up with debt growth, the secular uptrend in gold is still in place, despite extended profit taking—and the chart is looking bullish, no? 😎

If you’re up at Diggers, keep your head down.

See you in the market.

M

Metals Roundup July'25: Tariffs, Tradewinds & Bull Turns