Metals Roundup Sep'25: A silver linings copper playbook

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TLDR: September 2025 Metals Roundup

Well, unsurprisingly, bulk minerals prices in SDR terms slowed for the third month in September, speeling out another cyclical down trend, within an overall secular downtrend.

But copper prices reversed, accelerating by close to 3% month-on-month in September.

Extreme weather events and their effect on supply chains are now driving the narrative. Interruptions at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in September added to the extreme weather events already affecting DRC and Chilean copper supply. Freeport interruptions alone may take 600ktpa of supply out of the market.

It may be that we see a continuation of this in October, with a flow through to the RBA’s base metals index.

But for now, real strength on the industrial metals demand side still hinges on China’s next steps (whereas for rare earths it’s critical minerals security agendas), the strength of the USD (not yet weak enough to supercharge spending), and the favourable way Australia is being treated by the White House.

While the copper supply-side narrative bull might be back, we still need the demand-side to pop if we are to see sustainably higher prices.

Uranium is still strong, and lithium was again on the nose in September.

Finally, anti-debasement gold is about to hit and surpass the US$4,000 level. But Silver was the standout performer!

Overall head and shoulders managed a minor uptick

Although the overall commodities price index (which includes hard and soft commodities) is still caught in a bearish head and shoulders pattern, there was a slight uptick in September.

We will continue to watch this, and if the USD meaningfully weakens (aka, if the new Fed Governors win over Powell and we see more/quicker rate cuts versus Powell’s ideal view of the monetary world) we might see further strength.

Your Charts for September 2025

🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals

The pop in September was supply-side factors—namely bad weather events. But the next leg of copper price strength will have to come from a stronger Beijing demand impulse—not Washington, plus a weaker USD.

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🧱👷‍♀️🌉 Bulk minerals

Slowing, slowing, slow, as the bears took control of Yosemite in September.

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⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of September, it had popped (up by 1,000/t on the August close), to US$9,530/t, yet more than 80% down from its July 2023 peak.

Uranium is firmly back in the narrative—with month end spot trading at US$76/lb—driven by data centres and increasing capex spends from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. But LNG and coal are quicker, and more present sources of energy.

I continue to expect fossil fuels to make a structural comeback given global demand for energy driven by data centre formation. And what that means is that we will need every calorific unit available, which I’m sure will be repugnant to die hard green transitioners, but reality, nonetheless.

Local impact from global events in September

As I mentioned last month and in the months before, we’re still seeing cyclical dollar weakness within a secular or long-term dollar strength thesis. In the event Trump gets his way with interest rate cuts, the dollar should weaken, providing respite to sovereigns outside the U.S. That’s because a gentler dollar creates liquidity in those countries and creates abundance in the force, aka the Eurodollar market—and that fires up demand for nation building projects and fiscal largesse.

  1. Implications for your corporate development strategy: If we do have a real interest rate cutting cycle in Australia this year (although that’s not looking likely), greenfield projects delivering into the drivers outlined above might start to emerge.

  2. Implications for your personal investment strategy: We’re still waiting for USD weakness, U.S. trade policy and China demand/stimulus to fire up to ignite bulk, and base prices. That said, with extreme weather events curtailing the supply side, especially in copper, investors will be inclined to invest more in copper exploration and supportive of new developments. Uranium still looks strong. Coal and fossil fuels are still required and are not going away any time soon (or for many decades). Aussie copper has been spared U.S. tariffs, and we may deliver more into the deficits created by disruptions in Indonesia, DRC and Chile, but it remains a USD story despite supply shortfalls, due to “affordability”. There is renewed upward pressure from a precious metal perspective as a result of interest rate cut signals. And since GDP growth can’t keep up with debt growth, the secular uptrends in gold and silver remain in place 😎

All in all, it’s still a golden market with copper bears and bulls duking it out and the silver lining is, silver….

See you in the market.

Mike

With decades of success across six continents, NextLevelCorporate expertly navigates the intersection of M&A, financial advisory, and business strategy—delivering macroeconomically aligned corporate development strategies, with bespoke transactions that bring them to life.

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