TLDR; October 2025 Metals Roundup

Well, the copper bull was back for a short time in October, despite turning a little bearish of late.

In October, bulk mineral prices in SDR slowed again, for the fourth month in a row and confirming a cyclical and secular downtrend for bulks. That’s a China and USD demand-side story.

But copper prices reversed again, accelerating by close to 6.6% month-on-month in October, which represented twice September’s price acceleration.

But was it bullish impetus, or some cyclical supply-side events?

To be precise, extreme weather events, unrest, disrupted supply chains in copper and cobalt continue to drive the narrative. Interruptions at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in September, previous disruptions in DRC and Chilean copper supply and new export restrictions from the DRC for cobalt contributed to lower supply.

Demand also increased due to the potential US-China trade truce and expectations of further US interest rate cuts.

As predicted last month, we did see a continuation of September’s accelerating prices in October and a flow through to the RBA’s base metals index.

We’re still waiting for the demand-side to pop on China demand reality (still massive property industry-related headwinds over there) and a weakening USD (still waiting) before we can call a secular recovery.

For now, it feels like a cyclical pop based mainly on supply restrictions and with an element of potentially improving relations between Trump and Xi, but it’s still a little bearish for my money.

Recent price action has confirmed my thesis, and we’ll now see stock markets correct and consolidate.

And that also goes for anti-debasement gold, which while still above the US$4,000 level has been affected by profit taking—also as earlier warned.

Interestingly, we did see a triple peak in Silver, surpassing $50/oz yet again and trading up to $54/oz. Most commentators said it would not hit $50 again and that it would be downhill all the way. Not so.

Overall commodities index managed another uptick

We will continue to watch this chart, and if the USD meaningfully weakens and China gets even more serious about stimulus, this may continue. Otherwise, the technical aspects of this chart 👇 suggest it is popping (going up) before it should.

Your Charts for September 2025

🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals

The base metals index price acceleration in October was the fastest since April 2024.

Why? In addition to copper and cobalt supply-side factors already discussed in the introduction—additional demand materialised on expectation of a cooling of economic hostilities between the U.S. and China.

Will we see a third month of accelerating prices in November? Maybe, but it’s a similar pattern to prior September/October periods.

Let’s wait and see, but to be honest I’ll be looking for at least 4 months of directional confirmation before loading up in copper as it is likely most of the demand-side acceleration came from expectational matters, and the USD is still too strong to kick-start a secular upcycle.

🧱👷‍♀️🌉 Bulk minerals

Slowing, slowing, really slow but still positive. That said, the bears still controlled Yosemite in October.

Looking out 5 or 6 months will be interesting as we start to see the effects of increased China iron ore self-sourcing. You might remember I wrote about this back in 2021 (on several occasions). If you don’t recall, here’s a refresher on China’s 40% (price making) self-sourcing aspiration. Fast forward to today, and the first phase of Simandou is up and running.

⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of October, it had popped (up by 70/t), to US$9,600/t, a deceleration in price and still more than 80% down from its July 2023 peak.

Today it’s up 6% from that close with some wind at its back, but for how long?

Uranium is firmly back in the narrative—with month end spot trading at US$82/lb—driven by data centres and increasing capex spends from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. But LNG and coal are quicker, and more present sources of energy.

Problem is that since then, it’s cratered back to US$76/lb.

I continue to expect fossil fuels to make a structural comeback given global demand for energy driven by data centre formation. And what that means is that we will need every calorific unit available, which I’m sure will be repugnant to die hard green transitioners, but reality, nonetheless.

And now we start to see headlines about floating data centres that will be powered by the sun. makes sense. Wonder how much silver will be required?

Local impact from global events in October

As I mentioned last month and in the months before, we’re still seeing cyclical dollar weakness, but not enough to kick start a new commodities pricing cycle.

Implications for your corporate development strategy: What I’ve been saying is that: “if we do have a real interest rate cutting cycle in Australia this year (although that’s not looking likely), greenfield projects delivering into the drivers outlined above might start to emerge”. And as the weeks go by, it’s looking more unlikely, with the RBA’s most recent minutes implying a further rate in 2026, but probably not 2025 (refer paragraph 2 under the heading: “Outlook”). The cash margins still available in gold suggest that robust gold projects will continue to be financed, and the U.S. and Canadian sovereign investments in critical mineral projects should help in those categories. However, for the rest, I hear screams for more M&A rather than greenfield development projects.
Implications for your personal investment strategy: We’re still waiting for USD weakness, U.S. trade policy and China demand/stimulus to ignite bulk, and base prices. That said, with extreme weather events curtailing the supply side, especially in copper, investors will be inclined to invest more in copper exploration and supportive of new developments. Uranium still looks strong. Coal and fossil fuels are still required and are not going away any time soon (or for many decades). Aussie copper has been spared U.S. tariffs, and we may deliver more into the deficits created by disruptions in Indonesia, DRC and Chile, but it remains a USD story despite supply shortfalls, due to “affordability”. And since GDP growth can’t keep up with debt growth, the secular uptrends in precious metals remain in place 😎 regardless of cyclical corrections/consolidations.

All in all, bulks are still challenged, Simandou is up, base metals may or may not be setting up for a leg higher, and precious metals still look pretty good.

See you in the market.

Mike

Metals Roundup Oct '25: Base metals cyclical pop, secular recovery?