TLDR; November 2025 Metals Roundup

Well, the copper bull turned back into a bear, despite price action in copper stocks of late.

And the bulk bears remained bearish, in fact November 2025 brought a truckload of bears.

Bulk prices still grew in November, but at their slowest pace in five months; and for base metals, their slowest pace in three months.

The problem with bulks? The USD is still strong (holding back demand outside the U.S.), and broad-based stimulus is yet to appear in China.

Why the slowdown in bases? Same as above, but there’s more. The copper price acceleration in October (6.6% month-on-month) was a cyclical pop, with November prices accelerating at only 1/5th of that rate. In prior months, extreme weather events, unrest, disrupted supply chains in copper and cobalt drove the narrative. Interruptions at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in September, previous disruptions in DRC and Chilean copper supply and new export restrictions from the DRC for cobalt in October contributed to lower supply. Demand also increased due to the potential US-China trade truce and expectations of further US interest rate cuts. But in November, some of this impetus had run its course, hence the deceleration.

No change to the NLC thesis: We’re still waiting for the demand-side to pop on China demand reality (still massive property industry-related headwinds over there) and a weakening USD (still waiting) before we can see a reversal.

And now that the last interest rate cut in the U.S. was more hawkish than dovish, the expectation is that the USD will not weaken much further for the moment.

Your Charts for November 2025

🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals

The base metals index price acceleration in November was the slowest October was the fastest since April 2024.

Copper and cobalt supply-side factors seem to have run their course.

Last month I said:

“Will we see a third month of accelerating prices in November? Maybe, but it’s a similar pattern to prior September/October periods. Let’s wait and see, but to be honest I’ll be looking for at least 4 months of directional confirmation before loading up in copper as it is likely most of the demand-side acceleration came from expectational matters, and the USD is still too strong to kick-start a secular upcycle.”

And what we did find in November was a slowdown, and a material one at that.

🧱👷‍♀️🌉 Bulk minerals

Slowing, slowing, really slow but still (ever so) positive. The bears are still in the park.

Last month I said:

“Looking out 5 or 6 months will be interesting as we start to see the effects of increased China iron ore self-sourcing. You might remember I wrote about this back in 2021 (on several occasions). If you don’t recall, here’s a refresher on China’s 40% (price making) self-sourcing aspiration. Fast forward to today, and the first phase of Simandou is up and running.”

No change to that thesis either. In fact, Rhodes Ridge is finally being discussed in the mainstream. If developed it will add more high-grade supply to the global seaborne trade.

⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last LME trading day of November, it printed US$10,190/t, still more than 78% down from its July 2023 peak.

Uranium traded at US$74/lb, a fall of nearly 10% month-on-month. That said, its recent reinstatement as a critical mineral in the U.S. is sure to light it up.

I continue to expect fossil fuels to make a structural comeback given global demand for energy driven by data centre formation. And what that means is that we will need every calorific unit available.

Local impact from global events in November

As I mentioned last month and in the months before, we’re still seeing cyclical dollar weakness, but not enough to kick start a new commodities pricing cycle.

Implications for your corporate development strategy: Now that we know we won’t have a real interest rate cutting cycle in Australia this year, greenfield projects delivering into the drivers outlined above are unlikely to occur until the tide changes once inflation has been brought under control. And we could be waiting awhile. However, the cash margins still available in gold (which I expect to continue improving after this period of sideways price consolidation) suggest that robust gold projects will continue to be financed, and the U.S. and Canadian sovereign investments in critical mineral projects should help in those categories. However, for the rest, I hear screams for more M&A rather than greenfield development projects. This should accelerate in 2026.
Implications for your personal investment strategy: We’re still waiting for USD weakness, U.S. trade policy and China demand/stimulus to ignite bulk, and base prices. Uranium still looks strong and should improve given its reinstatement to critical minerals status in the U.S. Coal and fossil fuels are not going away any time soon (or for many decades). Aussie copper has been spared U.S. tariffs, and we may deliver more into the deficits created by disruptions in Indonesia, DRC and Chile, but it remains a USD story despite supply shortfalls, due to “affordability”. And since GDP growth can’t keep up with debt growth, the secular uptrends in precious metal prices remain in place 😎 regardless of cyclical corrections/consolidations.

All in all, bulk and base price acceleration is slowing dramatically, and it’s the rate of change that matters. Simandou is finally up and running, Rhodes Ridge is being discussed, and base metals may or may not be setting up for a leg higher if and when the USD weakens sometime next year, but precious metals still look the best, by far.

Our gold and silver predictions have come to pass, with much more positive price action expected as global currency debasement continues.

See you in the market.

Mike

Metals Roundup Nov'25: No secular recovery so far