Metals Roundup May '25: Gold shines still, bulks flat, bases pop, Lithium down 82% in 2 years

Image: Mike and Wombo collaboration

Gold still the standout, with silver catching up

In May, gold remained strong, silver started to catch up and now we see global analysts predicting platinum and palladium group metals won’t be far behind.

The bigger news was the collapse of lithium (measured in CIF hydroxide) which has collapsed by 82% since its 2023 high, two years ago.

Last month we pondered the overall commodities price index head and shoulders that I’ve been writing about since mid-last year 👇

This is the chart from last month.

And here’s the latest chart (as of May 2025), remembering it includes soft (agricultural) commodities as well—but with the cyclical downward trend still intact.

With continuing trade dislocations, Aussie export commodity prices continued their downward path, and if current talks break down we will see the index test the last support level.

On the other hand, if headway is made, we might see a bounce.

Your Charts 📈

Base Metals 🔗🏮🔌

Last month I noted that it was a case of “down from here on in.”

Well, I stand corrected, with May showing a massive reversal and reacceleration of prices for base metals.

How long it lasts is an unknown and one month does not make or break a trend, so I’ll be interested to see what happens in June. So far in June, LME copper is up ~2% for the month so far, and nickel is also up with zinc down a hair.

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Bulk minerals - inch by inch, still no help from USD 🧱👷‍♀️🌉

SMASHED in March, hit again in April and flat as salted gluten free matza in May.

Demand destruction plus oversupply explains what’s been going on with bulks, but I expect coal prices to strengthen this year and that should add some strength in the next few months.

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Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil) ⚗🧲☢

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of May, it had collapsed to US$8,360, some $700 lower than last month, but still 82% down from its July 2023 peak.

If the new Aussie playbook is to short high calorific value hydrocarbons and uranium while going long intermittent large footprint renewables; we can expect brown outs, blackouts, power rationing in the not-too-distant future.

But I expect fossil fuels to start to make a structural comeback given global demand for energy driven by data centre formation to power AI. and that means we will need every calorific unit available, which I’m sure will be repugnant to die hard green transitioners.

Volatility (still) ahead for industrial metals, no change to thesis

I’ll say it again, Aussie export commodities are in for a few volatile years—so, you may want to revisit and potentially recalibrate your investment thesis and corporate development strategy if you’ve built your strategy for yesterday’s macro and geopolitical drivers.

As I also mentioned last month and in the months before, we’re copping some cyclical dollar weakness (and you can see that with the USD weakening against the euro and the AUD. amongst other currencies), but within a secular or long-term dollar strength thesis. That also hasn’t changed. Weakness followed by strength is typical.

Some weakness in the dollar should lead to respite outside the U.S., with a gentler dollar actually creating liquidity in those countries and creating abundance in the force, i.e., the Eurodollar market, and firing up demand for commodities.

But the silver lining for now? Gold and PM (still 😅)

Precious metals continue to glimmer right now—gold and silver, in particular. It’s all good. Keep an eye on platinum and palladium (and we might even have to try and remember how to spell rhodium).

And the golden bears? No longer. They’re now golden bulls.

Looking good Bully Ray, still...still…still…

See you in the market.

M

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