Metals Roundup May'26: Base Bull grows, Bulk Bears flat
“Base metal bull rockets while bulks flat on back” Copyright 2026. nextlevelcorporate. nextlevelcorporate prompts, AI generated image.
Summary for May 2026 — bases still rocketing, while bulks were laid flat
We’re still waiting for the Trump TACO and while there’s been more talk of a peace deal, we’re still facing the reality of inflation, Trump, Iran, and for Kevin Warsh to hold his first FOMC meeting.
I still think recent events and the massive refinancing Bessent has in front of him, spell the beginning of Plaza II, which is to say a multi-sovereign currency agreement or accord to produce a weaker USD to make refinancing in and out of the U.S. more viable/affordable, to enable the flow of more affordable commodities to sovereigns that need them (think China and Europe), and to enable synchronous global growth.
If I’m right, the commodities super cycle will resume once Plaza II is in place. And that’s just the beginning.
Today, let’s dig into the monthly rate of change charts to see what happened with industrial metals and minerals in May 2026.
Your rate of change charts for May 2026
🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals follow through is April was the tell
Month on month, the base metals index (copper, aluminium, zinc, tin, etc.) accelerated again, at a clip of [ ]% in May, after a month-on-month rate of 4.4% in April. Solid progress.
And what that means is that prices across the RBA’s base metals complex (e.g., copper, nickel, zinc, tin, etc.) are still accelerating albeit at a slightly slower rate than in April.
Base metals procurement for energy, electronics, manufacturing and other industrial uses continued to front run as the war in Iran showed no real signs of abating in May.
Whereas, from where we sit today, there are some signs that perhaps a form of Hormuz reopening may not be too far away.
China, our largest export destination and trading partner, also showed signs of potentially having some influence over the outcome. Not quite the famous Nixon/Kissinger/Mao meeting in 1972, but conceptually not all that different given both the U.S. and China want something from each other and there is a quid pro quo to be had at the intersection of rare earths, Russia, Ukraine, food, oil, energy, chips, and Iran. Somethings to play for every sovereign that’s not asleep at the wheel.
We will only see a resolution when there is one.
Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory
🧱👷♀️🌉 Bulk minerals
Another month, flat on back. No acceleration, no deceleration.
The trend is stagnation.
This makes sense because the Indonesia (and the U.S.) have been replacing some of our coal, with Indonesian coal and U.S. oil exports. And while steel is required to construct data centres, steel is plentiful whereas copper in particular is the real bottleneck for data centres and energy irrigation networks.
Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory
⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)
The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.
On the last LME trading day of May, it printed US$21,750/t, still more than 53% down from its July 2023 peak. Petroleum supply shocks and shortages leading to some substitution/switching to EVs are what’s driving this.
But like rare earth prices, floors and geopolitical-driven support, what happens to lithium prices if there’s an accord under a Trump and Xi “kiss and make up” scenario?
Uranium was trading at US$86/lb on the last day of May, reflecting the re-rating in energy-hungry tech recipients. We expect uranium prices to continue “up to the right” although not in a straight line. And uranium is not controlled by China.
Fossil fuels are now more than ever making a structural comeback as I’ve been suggesting. And as predicted last month, Russian oil was de-sanctioned and the U.S. is likely going to let China have more oil, for a strategic price, if we see a Plaza II accord.
🪔 Oil
To fade oil or not to fade oil. That is the question. It’s used in almost everything, and for our miners, the diesel price has a big say in operating margins for those who have not embraced a fully electric fleet, which is just about every miner, barring a handful.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership. The response was swift and economically devastating. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz virtually ground to a halt with a handful of vessel movements.
That narrow passage through which around a fifth of global oil production flows, and which also, as few people appreciate, transits around 45% of global sulphur exports needed in the production of fertiliser. Add to that Iran's missile attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG liquefaction plant) causing extensive damage to Qatar Energy’s infrastructure, and halting ~330m m3 of LNG/day (20% of global trade) via the Strait. You can read more here.
We are still living inside that oil shock, and since the conflict began the price of crude oil jumped to above $100 per barrel on several occasions, up from around $67 before the first strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep the Strait blocked as a tool of pressure, and Iranian military commanders have raised the spectre of oil at $200 a barrel. That pricing is looking unlikely from where we sit today, but things can change quickly particularly as second, third and fourth order effects of delays, missed planting seasons, rising food and fuel prices and shrinking business margins flow downstream.
At May month end, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were trading at ~US$92.05 and ~US$87.36per barrel, respectively. Today, Brent has settled back to around the $87 mark.
Local impact from global forces
At a macro level, global liquidity is flat and we’re living through a messy recalibration of the world order as geopolitics takes over from demand and programmatic intelligence takes over from software products.
Aside from AI infratructure, chips, the critical minerals required to power them, and now space, most other equities and crypto are flat. Add to that difficulties in the sovereign debt refinancing markets while the USD remains strong.
This is what the current macro spells out for your corporate development and investment strategies, if you’re in Australia.
Corporate development strategy: We continue to see the macro effecting certain mineral projects as a result of discounting future cash flows at higher rates, inflated capex, and borderline debt serviceability. In its place, more M&A. This is accelerating. Capital is selective, but for favoured sectors, gold, rare earths and lithium, it’s strong. This can change quickly. Especially for metals that behave cyclically even though the long-term thesis is still intact. Watch unemployment from ageing demographics and AI substitution.
Investment strategy: The USD is not as strong as it has been during similar periods in history, probably because fewer oil barrels are transacting, petrodollar recycling flows are thinner, long U.S. Treasuries have been selling off, and capital is quietly finding other homes in response to Trump’s U.S.S Alonism which I have written about extensively, in client newsletters. For the moment, under this Administration, the wind is coming out of the petrodollar's sails. However, some green shoots in global liquidity are visible and if Hormuz reopens soon the market will likely look through the transition period. Are we in a bubble? Well, the market did not fall out of bed as a result of the SpaceX IPO. Sure, equities took a hit as investors sold that and crypto to invest in SpaceX, and that might happen again for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, but ruination? Nope. Like last month, equities capitulation and peak yields are still not in — we’re not done yet, so we wait. Mind you, crypto capitulation has probably already happened.
Overall, the full effects of 30 January 2026 (the Kevin Warsh nomination and accelerating inflation) on liquidity and Treasury/Fed policy coordination as well as the war in Iran are still working their way through financial and commodity markets.
While the USD is surprisingly weak given the circumstances, it may suddenly reprice and in the past 10 days, it has strengthened against the Euro and the AUD.
However, Kevin Warsh is now the new Fed Chair and as a result we will start to see TIFFIT in full flight, which means the USD is likely to weaken and liquidity in markets is likely to grow. But it will take more time.
In the meantime? Hard commodities super cycle on pause (but for frond-end loading of bases to avoid expected shortages), interest rate cuts/hikes on pause, and plenty of volatility until further notice.
See you in the market 🖐
Mike
With decades of success across six continents, NextLevelCorporate expertly navigates the intersection of M&A, financial advisory, and business strategy—delivering macroeconomically aligned corporate development strategies, with bespoke transactions that bring them to life.
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