Metals Roundup Mar'26: two bears, two bulls, black gold
“Gold and silver bears took a breather while base and bulk bulls arm wrestled and il adjudicated” Copyright 2026. nextlevelcorporate..
Summary for March 2026—two bears, two bulls, black gold
Last month we weren't calling a directional reversal in industrial metal prices. March had other ideas.
Both bulk and base metals accelerated month-on-month, though in opposite directions — bulks trending up, bases trending down on a three-month weighted average basis.
The winner of the arm wrestle: bulk minerals, with prices for the iron ore, steelmaking coal and thermal coal complex accelerating ahead of bases.
But the referee on all of this is oil. Despite deadlines, diplomacy and rumours of an off-ramp, we are now more than four weeks into a conflict that is actively squeezing oil supply, fertiliser production and soft commodity availability. If this persists, expect oil price acceleration, a sharp contraction in industrial metal demand, and a meaningful regime change in risk markets.
Which brings us to what now happens in April — and with the dollar (USD).
Under the classic petrodollar framework, rising oil demand lifts barrel prices, increases global demand for USD, and strengthens the greenback. Petrodollar surpluses then get recycled by oil exporters back into U.S. Treasuries and blue-chip equities, reinforcing dollar dominance. It’s an elegant, self-reinforcing loop and it’s showing signs of strain.
The DXY which tracks the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies and which should be considerably stronger given current oil dynamics, is barely holding 100. Trump's dismantling of the rules-based international order, compounding geopolitical disruption, and a wave of central bank tightening aimed at anchoring inflation are all working against the petrodollar mechanism. Fewer barrels are transacting, recycling flows are thinner, and capital is quietly finding other homes.
The wind is coming out of the petrodollar's sails. And while that means less demand for Treasuries (a separate issue), where it goes next will set the tone for metal affordability, and therefore prices in April.
Let’s dig into the monthly charts.
Your rate of change charts for March 2026
Note that the RBA recently rebased the index on which these charts are based. As of 1 April 2026, the index has been reweighted according to an average of export values in 2023/24 and 2024/25 (previously 2022/23 and 2023/24).
Also added is a three-month moving average curve. This makes directional changes (e.g., broadly accelerating prices, versus broadly decelerating prices) easier to spot.
🔗🏮🔌 Base Metals reversal
Month on month, the base metals index (copper, aluminium, zinc, tin, etc.) accelerated at a modest clip of 2.8%, significantly faster than the 1.4% monthly deceleration in February.
This was an unexpected turnaround, suggesting buyers and metal traders were not exactly fading Iran, but instead were probably reacting to expected supply chain disruptions from the war—thus bringing forward their purchases and pushing up prices.
Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory
🧱👷♀️🌉 Bulk minerals
A 5.1% month on month price acceleration in March was the fastest increase since October 2024. We’re seeing some momentum here with only one deceleration in the past 9 months.
Same reason as bases, most likely. Think of it as a geopolitical supply chain premium.
Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory
⚗🧲☢ Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil)
The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.
On the last LME trading day of March, it printed US$19,800/t, a small reversal (decrease) since February but still more than 56% down from its July 2023 peak.
Uranium was trading at US$84.15/lb on 31 March 2026, reflecting the re-rating in energy-hungry tech recipients. We expect uranium prices to continue “up to the right” although not in a straight line.
Fossil fuels are now more than ever making a structural comeback as I’ve been suggesting. And as predicted last month, Russian oil was de-sanctioned.
🪔 Oil
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership. The response was swift and economically devastating. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz virtually ground to a halt with a handful of vessel movements.
That narrow passage through which around a fifth of global oil production flows, and which also, as few people appreciate, transits around 45% of global sulphur exports needed in the production of fertiliser. Add to that Iran's missile attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan (the world's largest LNG liquefaction plant) causing extensive damage to Qatar Energy’s infrastructure, and halting ~330m m3 of LNG/day (20% of global trade) via the Strait. You can read more here.
We are now living inside an oil shock and since the conflict began, the price of crude oil has jumped to above $100 per barrel on several occasions, up from around $67 before the first strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep the Strait blocked as a tool of pressure, and Iranian military commanders have raised the spectre of oil at $200 a barrel.
At month end, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were trading at US$118.35 and US$103.57 per barrel, respectively.
🥗 Fertilisers and food
We don’t normally cover fertilisers. However, fertiliser supply and prices are already having an impact on food supply and prices. Fuel, fertilisers, plantings, food, and supply chain disruptions will no doubt show up in inflation numbers and consumer confidence charts.
Local impact from global forces
At the behavioural level, if the war continues, we may see a similar form of behaviour as manufacturers and constructors buy as much as they can in anticipation of disruptions.
At a macro level, global liquidity is still draining, and on top of that we have two additional forces at play.
First of all, recalibration of the world order as geopolitics takes over from demand and programmatic intelligence takes over from software products.
Second, we have more kinetic wars occurring with unresolved issues in Ukraine and Iran, and as already illustrated above, war induced oil shocks have always been inflationary.
Implications for your corporate development strategy: Higher rates for longer in the U.S. and Australia are likely for at least the foreseeable future given inflationary pressures (now exacerbated in Australia by the rising costs of oil imports which account for 80% of our national fuel demand). Greenfield projects other than for precious metals and government subsidised/supported strategic minerals are even more unlikely to occur as a result of inflation expectations and expected higher rates and potentially declining margins. In its place, there will be more M&A and energy leadership. This should accelerate in 2026. Capital raising will be selective, but for favoured sectors, complexes and opportunities it will be potent given the rotation out of private credit. Watch unemployment.
Implications for your personal investment strategy: The USD is not as strong as it has been during similar periods in history, probably because fewer barrels are transacting, petrodollar recycling flows are thinner, and capital is quietly finding other homes in response to Trump’s U.S.S Alonism which I have written about in client newsletters. For the moment, under this administration the wind is coming out of the petrodollar's sails (this is the opposite to the usual “Dollar Vader” or wrecking ball effect we might expect). Furthermore, global liquidity had been draining not building, and precious metals which more recently were the recipients of a rotation out of technology have come off. But equities capitulation and peak yields are still not in—we’re not done yet, so we wait.
Overall, the full effects of 30 January on liquidity and Treasury/Fed policy coordination as well as the war in Iran are working their way through markets. While the USD is surprisingly weak given the circumstances, it may suddenly reprice.
In the meantime? Hard commodities super cycle on pause (but for frond-end loading to avoid expected shortages), interest rate cuts on pause, and plenty of volatility until further notice as we speed towards a new multipolar world order, with hardly enough calorific units, transformers, and rail to get us there safely.
See you in the market 🖐
Mike
With decades of success across six continents, NextLevelCorporate expertly navigates the intersection of M&A, financial advisory, and business strategy—delivering macroeconomically aligned corporate development strategies, with bespoke transactions that bring them to life.
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